New Zealand on track to power every home with solar by 2032

Research shows New Zealand is on course to generate enough solar power to meet the electricity needs of every home within seven years.

Analysis of government installation data by Harrisons Solar, a residential solar provider, indicates that the country's total installed capacity reached 665 MW last month, marking a 43 percent increase from a year prior and more than double the capacity recorded two years ago.

If this level of growth continues, it is projected that New Zealand's solar capacity will surpass 10,250 MW by 2032. Harrisons Solar notes this would be enough to meet the annual electricity consumption of the country's 2.05 million households.

Capacity growth

Phil Harrison, Managing Director of Harrisons Solar, said New Zealand has reached a significant point in its movement toward a decarbonised energy sector. The sector's progress is enabled by the uptake of new and more efficient solar technology, which is expected to shorten the timeframe needed for the country to reduce reliance on non-renewable sources.

"For the first time, we can realistically forecast a future where New Zealand will have enough solar capacity to power every home in the country - and that milestone is now firmly within reach."

Harrison highlighted that within the next twelve months, the nation's solar capacity would reach 953 MW, equivalent to the output of the coal-powered Huntly station. He also pointed out that, despite substantial growth, solar's contribution to New Zealand's total electricity supply remains under two percent.

"Our analysis of Electricity Authority data shows that residential installations made up around 54% of total installed solar capacity last month. The number of Kiwi homes with rooftop solar is now almost 68,000 and growing at around over 8,700 annually. While it took NZ seven years to reach the first 100 MW in solar capacity, that same amount is now being added every 18 months," Harrison said.

Technology developments

Harrison drew parallels between the adoption curve for solar energy and other home energy updates.

"We're moving through a similar adoption curve to what we saw with heat pumps. Early hesitation is now giving way to mainstream acceptance as the economics and the technology both improve. The latest generation of photovoltaic technology is an example of this shift in market dynamics. New models now entering the NZ market, such as the world's most powerful and efficient all black solar panels, the AIKO Infinite series, are capable of producing up to 475 - 490 watts per panel, more than double the output of a typical panel installed just a decade ago. This leap in performance means homeowners can now generate more electricity with fewer panels, making systems more compact and more viable for a wider range of properties," he said.

He also referenced the increasing number of homes combining solar panels with battery storage; this trend is attributed to rising preferences for energy independence and resilience. According to the latest data, the total number of households integrating both technologies has grown by 72 percent since July 2024.

Energy independence

"We're seeing a fundamental shift in how New Zealanders engage with energy. As more homes generate and store their own power, we're moving toward a decentralised electricity system, one that's more resilient, less reliant on the grid during peak times, and better equipped to handle disruptions. Over time, this transition could ease pressure on national infrastructure and open the door to innovations like energy sharing between households and community-wide power networks.

With average returns estimated between 12 and 14 percent, solar is now delivering stronger financial performance than many leading KiwiSaver funds. For homeowners, the data suggests that delaying installation could mean missing out on significant long-term savings," Harrison said.

The data from the Electricity Authority, referenced in the analysis, supports the steady increase in capacity and uptake, with rapidly improving technology and economic returns being key drivers of growth in residential solar across New Zealand.